Time to Sell
Sell your Bitcoin unless you are a true believer
I start this writing with a link. I truly hope "small investors" will finally get out of this beautiful idea-turned-cult-based speculation before the "run" occurs. I have been watching daily as the whales and exchanges try to keep it above 20K. I am sure each of them has an exit strategy in place. You should, as well.
At a minimum, scroll to the end and read my “strongest reason” I suggest speculative investors should sell.
Why do I care?
I care because I have been there in the past with speculative dreams of becoming rich overnight. I have been influenced by cult-like language and faux complexities designed to make you feel as if you are missing out on the windfall. I have been affected by thought-canceling language like FUD. The Bitcoin of today falls right into the lane of a scam. Why? Because there is no value in it except the ability to sell it to someone else. At a minimum, it is a “flim-flam” currency. You can look that up if you are not sure what that means.
Unless you are a true believer and dont care if Bitcoin goes to 10 bucks, sell your Bitcoin. If you made profits, pay your taxes and consider yourself a lucky gambler who cashed in. Donate some of that clawing of other people's money to a worthy animal cause.
Here are the only two reasons to keep Bitcoin.
- Keep it if you believe Bitcoin will replace the USD and become the fiat of choice.
- Keep it if you believe Bitcoin will become a utility someday over a CBDC.
If you have bet that Bitcoin will become the currency the world uses, I suggest a look at Bitcoin Cash. For those who dont know the difference, Bitcoin Cash was a fork and promised to be the utility Satoshi envisioned. The founder promised that Bitcoin Cash would fulfill the proper intention. Bitcoin Cash never got adopted at scale and is down from a high of 800 USD to 100 USD as of this writing.
The discipline of an actual investor
If you say you are an investor, do the diligence on how Bitcoin will solve its many challenges to become a valuable utility. Ask yourself if that is even the intention—issues like transaction limitations and environmental impact. It's unknown how deeply Bitcoin will be regulated, which has kept my portfolio away. I dont see nation-states like the U.S. allowing a currency they don’t control to continue unfettered. If you do not have a well-defined risk profile based on those issues, then you are just a gambler; if you are good with that, then yippy kai yay, Dr. Strangelove.
Do you like gambling?
Ok, that's fine, but here is an interesting fact about out-of-control gamblers. Out-of-control gamblers are not addicted to the win; they are addicted to losing. Think about that. Professional gamblers never guess the odds; with every new card, they calculate the odds and decide on the ratios whether to hold 'em or fold’em. Are you that disciplined?
Here is the best case I can make for speculative investors of Bitcoin selling in today’s environment.
The real reason to get out of this “play” is that the story of Bitcoin has gone from excitement and opportunity, to a story of hacks, project failings, and governments prepping regulations.
Even failing projects not associated with Bitcoin, add serious doubt for the “new money”. There is no distinction for them, most of them are amatuers at the technology and dont want to miss an opportunity the shills present.
The brand of “Bitcoin” has been solidified and is seen as the top of the crypto market, warranted or not. All other coins, tokens and projects are heuristically associated with it. New money sees it as the apex and benchmark for all other projects.
This may mean nothing to you because you are a true believer. If that is the case then you will miss my point. The origin story of Bitcoin no longer feels authentic and in that void media will write more harsly stories about the technology. New money will for get all about FOMO soon, this is my projection.
Without new money the run will begin, when is only a matter of time.
Humans are story-based, and this story will not end well for most. The story of Bitcoin with every hack, every exchange or project ceasing to trade, more and more "potential" first-time Bitcoin buyers are out. All speculations need new money; without them, the pyramid will sink from its weight.
The one question you have to ask yourself is, are you a true believer in this math of Bitcoin? Do you care if it goes to 10K, 5K, or 1K?
What do I know? And anyway, this is not financial advice, so proceed as you feel you should. Remember one thing: Vegas wasn't built on losses. You are not the casino.
Final Note: There will be a time to get back into digital ledgers, dapps, and all the rest. That time will be the second after Governments adopt some regulations. Invest with purpose and intel.
I want to thank all the writers, professors, and autodidacts who have crossed my path and provided me with the knowledge to form this thought. None of these concepts are mine uniquely; I have drawn from many to form this interpretation. Numerous others have said the same thing more eloquently than I. I thank all who have done the work and take no credit.
A word on “Tipping,” the new feature here on Medium- I have set mine up to go to Organizations fighting for Animals and Mother Earth- I change the link with every new story. Still, all tips will go to these charities doing what they can to save the mammal race.
